At a time when Europe is increasingly discussing the scenario of a military confrontation with Russia in the coming years and while Russian MPs now openly and publicly call on the Kremlin to launch an attack with the Oreshnik missile system against a European drone manufacturing plant in response to European involvement in drone strikes on Russian soil, the EU is discovering that air defense is judged not only by how many launchers it possesses, but mainly by whether there are missiles to load them. And missiles like Patriot and THAAD are unavailable, as they shrink at an alarming rate due to the ongoing needs of either Ukraine, which faces Russian air raids almost daily, or American allies in the Persian Gulf who dread new attacks from Iran.
Under these developments, the United States is now called upon to divide an increasingly limited arsenal between Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific. Except that in this military setting, Europe does not appear to be a priority. And the question being raised is whether, if a major new crisis indeed breaks out tomorrow, there will be enough interceptor missiles to protect the European sky? The answer is likely negative. However, amid this urgent search, a new player appears on the horizon: South Korea, with cheaper systems, a strong manufacturing base, and weapons already tested in real combat conditions.
Without Patriot
Europe is rapidly depleting its stockpiles of air defense interceptor missiles, at a time when Ukraine's Patriot launchers remain essentially without missiles, while Russia launches daily waves of ballistic missiles, attempting to exploit this critical vulnerability. Kyiv eagerly desires to secure permission for domestic production of Patriot interceptor missiles, however, the missile's manufacturers, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, are reportedly unwilling to share technology with Ukraine.
THAAD stockpiles collapsing
At the same time, the US military has consumed almost four-fifths of its THAAD missile stockpiles compared to pre-war levels, as well as roughly half of its Patriot interceptors since the start of the war with Iran. The US quickly identified this vulnerability. In April, the Pentagon's Munitions Acceleration Council (MAC) identified 12 existing and two "emerging" munitions under an ambitious plan to increase production and enter into a series of agreements with key suppliers, aiming to control costs and maintain stable production, according to fiscal year 2027 budget documents.
Billion-dollar deals
The 12 existing munitions include Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) Missile Segment Enhancement interceptors, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors, Standard Missile-3 IIA, SM-6, and SM-3 Block IB. Earlier this month, to increase production of these critical interceptor missiles, the US signed a deal worth over $3 billion with Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman to boost component production for Patriot and THAAD. However, analysts warn that it will take years before Washington returns to pre-war stockpile levels. Indicatively, Lockheed Martin produced only 620 Patriot interceptor missiles in 2025.
Europe spent 50 billion on air and missile defense
Similarly, last year, the White Paper on "European Defense and the ReArm Europe – Readiness 2030 plan" ranked air and missile defense among the seven critical capability areas requiring immediate action to fill existing gaps. To cover urgent needs, European governments have spent large sums, reportedly around $50 billion since 2022, mainly on American systems. However, the expectation that the US will continue to cover all of Europe's missile defense needs may prove increasingly unrealistic, particularly in light of the war with Iran, as the US itself faces historically low stockpiles.
Exposed… the Old Continent
With Washington's long-term strategic attention turned toward the Indo-Pacific and its immediate focus absorbed by the Middle East, Europe has become, at best, a third-priority security issue. Even when production eventually increases, the US will likely prioritize its own needs first and then the Gulf nations. Europe may find itself near the end of the waiting list. At the same time, if China opens a new front with Taiwan in the near future, the pressure on American supply chains will multiply manifold.
The Russian invasion scenario
In a period when some critics fear that Russia could invade another Eastern European country by 2028, Europe faces a critical question: does it possess the necessary missile defense stockpiles to neutralize Russian drones and missiles? Just yesterday, Tuesday 25/8, Russian MPs asked President Putin to attack European drone production plants with the Oreshnik missile... And if the US cannot meet Europe's needs, where else can it turn? According to a recent research paper by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), South Korea is well-positioned to meet part of Europe's missile defense needs.
Europe's missile defense architecture
Europe relies primarily on the American-made Patriot system for its air defense. Germany has purchased the Arrow 3 long-range air defense system, developed by Israel Aerospace Industries with Boeing as a development partner and co-producer. However, this system represents only a small portion of the total air and missile defense capability Europe requires. The National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS), jointly developed by Norway and the US, is effective against cruise missiles, aircraft, and many unmanned aerial systems, but not against ballistic missiles. Similarly, Germany's IRIS-T SLM is optimized for air defense against cruise missiles and unmanned systems, not for addressing high-level ballistic threats. Europe also possesses an alternative to Patriot: the SAMP/T anti-aircraft system, developed by the Franco-Italian consortium Eurosam (MBDA and Thales). However, it has secured far fewer sales than its American competitor, while its production capacity also remains limited.
Can South Korea help?
According to the study, Europe's urgent need for air defense could offer South Korea new sales opportunities on the European continent. Although South Korea has not yet fully entered the European missile defense market, it has already proven it can deliver major conventional weapon systems rapidly. It has supplied Poland with tanks, self-propelled howitzers, and aircraft, while securing contracts with Romania and Norway for K9 self-propelled howitzers and K10 ammunition resupply vehicles, as well as with Norway and Estonia for Chunmoo multiple launch rocket systems.
The second-largest supplier
According to a SIPRI report for 2026, South Korea was the second-largest supplier of major weapon systems to NATO countries in Europe during 2021-2025, behind only the US. Last month, South Korea and NATO agreed to begin negotiations on a framework procurement agreement, which will allow Korean defense companies to participate in NATO's joint procurement market, estimated at 15 trillion won, or about $9.9 billion annually.
The Cheongung-II missiles
The South Korean medium-range anti-aircraft missile system Cheongung-II, produced jointly by LIG Nex1, Hanwha Systems, and Hanwha Aerospace, had a successful operational debut in the Middle East. South Korea built the Cheongung-II to intercept North Korean missiles. However, the system is now intercepting Iranian missiles and, in doing so, has transformed Seoul into one of the most sought-after defense suppliers in the world. The United Arab Emirates ordered the Cheongung-II in 2022. Two systems were deployed in early 2026, shortly before conflict with Iran broke out, and reportedly achieved a successful interception rate exceeding 96%.
Better than Patriot
According to analysts, this operational debut was comparable to and, in some cases, better than the performance of the American Patriot anti-missile system. A third system was delivered to the United Arab Emirates via an expedited emergency process. Meanwhile, additional orders placed in 2024 by Saudi Arabia and Iraq remain pending.
The advantages
One of the advantages of South Korean systems is the high degree of domestic production, estimated at around 95%. This limits exposure to supply chain disruptions and export restrictions, while helping maintain low production costs. Another advantage is the price. The South Korean Cheongung-II missile system costs about a third of the Patriot. Therefore, for the cost of one Patriot battery, a country can deploy three Cheongung-II batteries.
Equivalent system for THAAD
Furthermore, the South Korean L-SAM system, sometimes described as the Korean equivalent of THAAD, could further enhance the country's appeal as a supplier of upper-tier missile defense systems when it becomes fully ready for deployment, expected by 2028. However, concerns remain over whether Seoul can boost production sufficiently to meet additional demand from European nations. It is worth noting that Hanwha is expanding its manufacturing presence in Europe, including building new facilities in Poland and Romania. Although these specific units are not intended for producing interceptor missiles, they could be adapted for this purpose, significantly increasing output and reducing delivery times for European customers.
The SAFE restrictions
However, the European Union's Security Action for Europe (SAFE) initiative, adopted in May 2025, could restrict South Korea's role in filling European air defense needs. The program provides 150 billion euros, or approximately 175 billion dollars, to strengthen Europe's defense industrial base. To qualify for a loan under this initiative, a project must meet the condition that at least 65% of the product is manufactured within the EU, effectively prioritizing European production. Excluding South Korea from SAFE reduces the appeal of its systems for EU-funded procurement. At a time when Europe urgently needs to strengthen its air defense architecture, South Korean systems could help bridge this gap.
Europeans delivered small batch of Patriots to Ukraine
According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Western countries delivered a small batch of missiles for Patriot anti-aircraft systems to Kyiv. However, he did not specify which country supplied the ammunition. The head of the Kyiv regime also mentioned that Ukraine expects to receive several more Crotale air defense systems along with missiles for them. "We also received AIM missiles, which are very important missiles for us. And, to be honest, a few more Patriot missiles arrived. How many — I cannot say, but it was few, we need more," Zelensky stated.
It is recalled that CNN previously reported that interceptor missile stockpiles for Patriot systems in Ukraine are nearly exhausted, leaving the Ukrainian armed forces facing severe difficulties in repelling Russian strikes. Western media outlets note that Kyiv hopes to obtain permission from Washington for domestic production of anti-missile missiles for Patriot systems. This prospect had previously been tied to a promise by US President Donald Trump, but he later stated that Ukraine might not receive the right to open such a factory. It is also noted that Zelensky previously declared that Kyiv would need roughly 360 Patriot missiles to pass the upcoming winter.
La Repubblica: Paris and Rome deliver 4 SAMP/T systems to Ukraine
Paris and Rome have agreed to deliver four SAMP/T air defense systems to Ukraine and allow Kyiv to produce Aster 30 missiles, reports the Italian newspaper La Repubblica. The publication notes that the anti-aircraft defense systems will be placed at Kyiv's disposal before early 2027. In Italy's upcoming 13th military aid package for Ukraine, expected to be approved in October, Aster 30 missiles from Italian stockpiles will also be included, alongside Kronos radars and Italian-made SAMP/T components, the newspaper claims. As La Repubblica recalls, Ukrainian armed forces already possess two SAMP/T systems, for which no ammunition has been delivered since the summer of 2025 due to the exhaustion of national stockpiles.
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